US and Iran End Ceasefire as Hormuz Traffic Stays at 30 Vessels a Day
Updated
Updated · POLITICO · Jul 8
US and Iran End Ceasefire as Hormuz Traffic Stays at 30 Vessels a Day
3 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Jul 8
Summary
Tuesday skirmishes effectively ended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, putting oil markets back on alert just as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had started to recover.
Just over 30 vessels a day transited the strait last week, up faster than many analysts expected after the June truce but still far below the prewar average of 138.
A 3 million-barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories, higher oil output and OPEC's pledge to increase supply have helped cap fears of a prolonged shortage; Saudi Arabia also cut crude prices to Asia.
ClearView Energy warned even episodic attacks could keep shippers cautious, delay Gulf output repairs and restoration, and curb Iranian exports as Washington moves quickly to reimpose sanctions.
Trump said prices may rise briefly but fall quickly, arguing an oil glut and resumed tanker movements have set up a potential supply surplus despite the renewed fighting.
Could the US-Iran conflict drive oil to a record $180 a barrel this summer?
As missiles strike tankers, what is the fate of mariners trapped in the Strait of Hormuz?
After decades of sanctions, is the US-Iran 'resilience trap' now unbreakable?
July 2026 Ceasefire Collapse: U.S.-Iran Conflict, Strait of Hormuz Disruption, and Global Repercussions
Overview
The ceasefire established in mid-June 2026 through a memorandum lasted about three weeks before officially collapsing on July 8, 2026, as declared by President Donald Trump. This marked the second major breakdown since the conflict began, following a failed April agreement. The collapse came after a period of escalating strikes between the United States and Iran, with U.S. strikes on July 7 immediately condemned by Iran’s parliamentary Speaker. These events triggered renewed hostilities, leading to rising oil prices, economic uncertainty, and heightened safety concerns in the critical Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the fragile and volatile situation.