July 8 is expected to bring no change from Romania’s central bank, with Erste Group and all economists in a Bloomberg survey forecasting the benchmark rate will stay at 6.50%.
Erste expects the BNR to keep rates unchanged until May 2027 because the economy is operating below potential, even as policymakers maintain tight conditions to protect anti-inflation credibility.
5.9% inflation by end-2026 is Erste’s forecast, down from 10.9% in May, with core inflation seen easing to 5.6% from 8.5% as base effects improve and oil prices soften.
Leu weakness remains the main upside inflation risk, though Erste says tighter liquidity operations lifting market rates above the 5.50% deposit facility are not its base case.
2026 recession is Erste’s baseline, but it still sees Romania meeting its 6.2% budget-deficit target; weaker political commitment after the government’s collapse could complicate fiscal tightening from 2027.