177 million barrels of Chinese seaborne crude imports are estimated for July, up about 2% from June after months of declines, though still roughly 41% below July 2025.
H1 2026 imports fell about 23% year on year to 1.44 billion barrels, with May the trough at nearly 47% below a year earlier before volumes flattened in June and July.
$286,500 a day on the AG-China VLCC route marks a roughly 29% month-on-month drop in earnings, while the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index eased to 1,850 as Hormuz transit conditions improved.
June 17's Islamabad Memorandum and July 1 Doha talks helped reduce wartime freight risk premiums, but unresolved US-Iran disputes over transit mean shipping remains only partially normalized.
That incomplete recovery has left freight rates well below crisis peaks yet above pre-conflict norms, helping explain why China's crude flows have stabilized rather than rebounded.