Oil Crack Spreads Hit 70%-75% as Diesel Holds Above $4.57 Despite Crude Slide
Updated
Updated · FreightWaves · Jul 7
Oil Crack Spreads Hit 70%-75% as Diesel Holds Above $4.57 Despite Crude Slide
2 articles · Updated · FreightWaves · Jul 7
Summary
$4.578 a gallon marked the U.S. weekly retail diesel benchmark after a 9-cent drop, its 12th decline in 13 weeks, even as pump-price gauges still ranged up to $4.81 Tuesday.
Crack spreads have widened to 70%-75% of crude value from about 45% in early June and 27% at the start of 2026, showing refined fuels staying expensive while crude weakens.
Brent-linked crude fell from $77.08 a barrel on June 23 to $71.99 Monday as more supply moved through the partially reopened Strait of Hormuz and Chinese crude imports stayed soft.
Diesel and gasoline prices have not followed because global product inventories were drawn down during the Iran war shock, leaving analysts expecting either lower product prices or further crude declines to narrow the gap.
Looking into 2027, Citi sees Brent falling to $60 a barrel as geopolitical risk fades and fundamentals weaken, though tighter Chinese demand or reduced U.S. supply could challenge that bearish view.