Morgan Stanley Starts SpaceX at $300, Values Launch Business at Just $8 a Share
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Jul 7
Morgan Stanley Starts SpaceX at $300, Values Launch Business at Just $8 a Share
3 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Jul 7
Summary
$300 a share is Morgan Stanley’s new target for SpaceX, with the bank assigning only $8 per share to the launch business and tying most of its valuation to Starlink and AI infrastructure.
Morgan Stanley projects revenue rising from $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion in 2030 and $3.3 trillion in 2040, driven by Starlink connectivity, terrestrial compute and orbital compute deployments starting in 2028.
Starlink alone is modeled at $687.7 billion of 2040 revenue, while AI revenue climbs from $22 billion in 2026 to $2.6 trillion in 2040, helped near term by neocloud demand and disclosed or reported customer agreements.
The bullish case depends on heavy spending: Morgan Stanley estimates average funding needs of $72 billion a year in 2027-2030 and $95 billion in 2031-2034, while warning future equity dilution remains a material risk.
That framework assumes launch costs fall more than 99% within a decade and orbital compute reaches Earth cost parity by 2031, underscoring how much of the thesis rests on unproven technology and adoption timelines.