Kalshi Prices 54% Odds of SpaceX Buying Tesla by 2027 as Post-IPO Merger Talk Builds
Updated
Updated · The Motley Fool · Jun 18
Kalshi Prices 54% Odds of SpaceX Buying Tesla by 2027 as Post-IPO Merger Talk Builds
3 articles · Updated · The Motley Fool · Jun 18
Summary
Kalshi now puts a 54% chance on SpaceX acquiring Tesla before May 1, 2027, adding market-implied weight to merger speculation after SpaceX’s IPO.
Gwynn Shotwell has publicly floated the idea, and the companies already operate with deep overlap—SpaceX bought nearly $700 million of Tesla Megapacks in 2024-25 and $131 million of Cybertrucks.
Elon Musk’s control strengthens the case: he holds 85% of SpaceX voting power and about 20% of Tesla, while the companies share personnel, aligned boards and planned AI-chip production with Intel.
Supporters argue a tie-up would combine Tesla’s solar, battery and Optimus robotics efforts with SpaceX’s orbital data-center ambitions, though Tesla’s core EV business remains weak and its robotaxi and robot bets are still unproven.
Any deal would likely face governance scrutiny because of Musk’s overlapping interests, echoing past transactions including SolarCity and SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI.