Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 6
Odd Lots Spotlights 2 Traders Making Real Money on Kalshi and Polymarket
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 6

Odd Lots Spotlights 2 Traders Making Real Money on Kalshi and Polymarket

1 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 6

Summary

  • Brian Golden and Daniel Reichman told Bloomberg’s Odd Lots that a small group of dedicated traders is consistently making money on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
  • The episode says most activity in those markets is still gambling or speculation, and that new entrants would likely lose money without a focused edge in areas like politics and economics.
  • Golden and Reichman trade ideas through a private Discord called Maga Kiwi Club, where serious prediction-market participants share research and hunt for mispriced contracts.
  • The discussion also examined how those traders search for opportunities, what systematic biases they see in the market, and where they draw the line on insider trading.
  • Adam Iscoe, a New York-based journalist and producer who recently profiled the traders for The New York Times Magazine, joined the episode to add broader context on the niche.

Insights

With elite traders capturing most gains, are prediction markets a true source of wisdom or a new form of financial inequality?
When does a trader's 'information edge' cross the line into illegal insider trading on these new financial platforms?
Can AI surveillance effectively police a trillion-dollar market, or will it ignite a new high-tech arms race with manipulators?