Manifest attendees in Berkeley said prediction markets’ rapid turn toward sports wagering is undermining the field’s original mission as a truth-seeking forecasting tool.
Sports now account for roughly 80% of Kalshi trading volume and 39% of Polymarket’s since July 2024, a shift critics say brings addiction risks, insider trading and consumer-protection backlash.
Researchers in Science in April called prediction markets “gambling-like” and warned of public-health and democratic-manipulation risks, while several state lawsuits are already seeking bans.
Kalshi argues its exchange differs from sportsbooks because users trade against each other rather than the house, but conference participants said that distinction may not protect the sector if politics turn.
Some attendees urged platforms to lobby Democrats or even abandon sports entirely to preserve markets for geopolitics, insurance and clinical-trial forecasting, which they see as the industry’s stronger public-use case.