Updated
Updated · vtmarkets.com · Jul 4
Turkey June CPI Hits 32.11% as CBRT Holds 50% Rates Higher for Longer
Updated
Updated · vtmarkets.com · Jul 4

Turkey June CPI Hits 32.11% as CBRT Holds 50% Rates Higher for Longer

3 articles · Updated · vtmarkets.com · Jul 4

Summary

  • Turkey’s annual CPI rose 32.11% in June, a touch above the 32.1% forecast and keeping inflation firmly above 30%.
  • That slight overshoot reinforces expectations the central bank will keep its 50% policy rate unchanged, effectively ruling out a near-term cut.
  • The higher-for-longer outlook supports the lira through carry demand and reduces expectations of a sharp USD/TRY depreciation.
  • Turkish equities face pressure from elevated borrowing costs and attractive bond yields, while short-end rates are expected to stay high as markets price out 2026 cuts.
  • June inflation still eased from 32.6% in May, extending the broader disinflation trend after energy-price pressures linked to the Iran conflict receded.

Insights

Can Turkey's projected disinflationary path defy expert pessimism and finally stabilize the embattled Lira?
Beyond inflation, has 'Erdoğanomics' permanently damaged Turkey's economic credibility on the world stage?