Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 4
Kalshi Tops $31 Billion in June as 2026 World Cup Lifts Polymarket to $10.8 Billion
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jul 4

Kalshi Tops $31 Billion in June as 2026 World Cup Lifts Polymarket to $10.8 Billion

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 4

Summary

  • Kalshi handled more than $31 billion in June notional volume, up over 70% from $17.9 billion in May, while sustaining more than $1 billion a day since the World Cup began on June 11.
  • The 2026 FIFA World Cup drove the surge across prediction markets: Polymarket’s international platform hit a record $10.8 billion in June, reversing April-May declines, and its U.S. venue rose to more than $3.5 billion from $1.77 billion.
  • World Cup betting remained intense around Team USA, with more than $64 million traded on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket on whether the U.S. will win the tournament, despite implied odds of just 4.3% and 3%.
  • Rothera, the Susquehanna-Robinhood venture launched in June, logged $2 billion in monthly volume and already accounts for 7% of U.S. prediction-market trading, according to Bank of America.
  • Open interest also stayed elevated—above $1 billion at Kalshi and just under $400 million at Polymarket—as regulators and institutions watch whether platforms can handle sustained, high-volume sports trading.

Insights

If most traders on platforms like Polymarket lose money, are these markets creating wealth or just a new addiction?
With legal battles heading to the Supreme Court, are prediction markets the future of finance or simply unlicensed online gambling?

2026 World Cup Drives $44.8B Prediction Market Frenzy, Forcing Regulatory and Industry Transformation

Overview

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, held in June with an expanded 48-team format and prime-time summer scheduling, became a turning point for prediction markets. This global event drove unprecedented trading volumes, reaching $44.8 billion by early July and setting a new industry benchmark. The surge in activity signaled the mainstream emergence of prediction markets, fueled by the tournament’s broad appeal and unique timing. As a result, prediction markets not only gained widespread attention but also established themselves as a major force in global finance, marking the start of a new era for event-driven trading.

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