Updated
Updated · Detroit Free Press · Jul 4
Dow Hits Record 52,750 as June Payrolls Miss by 58,000
Updated
Updated · Detroit Free Press · Jul 4

Dow Hits Record 52,750 as June Payrolls Miss by 58,000

3 articles · Updated · Detroit Free Press · Jul 4

Summary

  • The Dow rose to fresh record highs above 52,750 on Thursday after June nonfarm payrolls increased only 57,000, far below the 115,000 consensus and down from a revised 129,000 in May.
  • That slowdown cut fears of near-term Fed tightening: July hike odds fell to about 20%, traders pushed the next fully priced hike to December, and the 2-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.13%.
  • Labor-market details were weaker than the headline unemployment rate suggested, with April and May revisions totaling a net 74,000 cut and labor-force participation slipping to 61.5%, the lowest since March 2021.
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first international appearance, said markets should not expect tolerance for inflation above 2%, though he noted inflation expectations have moderated.
  • Cooling inflation pressure was reinforced by WTI crude at $67 a barrel, erasing the Hormuz war premium and helping fuel a rotation into blue-chip industrials while big tech also rebounded.

Insights

With a new Fed chair's dovish hints clashing with hawkish data, where are US interest rates truly headed?
Is the stock market's record high ignoring recession warnings hidden within the latest dismal jobs report?
Are businesses facing a false dawn on tariff refunds as a new legal challenge threatens billions in payments?