Bavi became the world’s third Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2026 at 2 p.m. EDT Friday, with the JTWC estimating 160 mph winds after explosive strengthening east of Guam.
A 75 mph jump in 24 hours drove that upgrade, fueled by 29-30C waters, deep ocean heat content above 110 kJ/cm2, and light wind shear of 5-10 knots.
JTWC forecasts Bavi to peak near 175 mph by Sunday before an eyewall replacement cycle, then pass just south of or over Tinian and Saipan as a Category 5 storm with about 165 mph winds.
The National Weather Service issued a Typhoon Watch for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan, warning of 175 mph sustained winds, gusts to 210 mph, 45-foot seas and catastrophic damage where the eyewall hits.
Beyond the Northern Marianas, steering currents are expected to push Bavi west-northwest toward Taiwan or China by July 10, potentially keeping major-typhoon strength over an El Niño-favored track.