Bavi is forecast to strengthen from a 60 mph tropical storm Thursday to a 150 mph super typhoon by Sunday morning, with Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands facing the worst conditions Sunday afternoon or evening.
29-30C waters, high ocean heat content and light to moderate wind shear are expected to drive rapid intensification, with JTWC projecting 105 mph winds by Friday and 155 mph early next week.
The latest track shifted slightly earlier and farther south, taking Bavi south of Saipan but raising the risk to Guam if it wobbles farther south; rainfall could hit 4 to 5 inches in an hour, triggering flash flooding.
Watches could be issued as early as Friday, and residents are being urged to finish preparations by Sunday morning before winds ramp up quickly.
The threat comes as the Northern Mariana Islands are still recovering from April's Super Typhoon Sinlaku, which caused about $1.5 billion in damage and six deaths.
Months after Sinlaku's devastation, is Typhoon Bavi confirming that catastrophic storms are the new reality for the Mariana Islands?
Can scientists use atmospheric waves from Bavi to better predict the fury of future super storms?
Could this Pacific super typhoon intensify El Niño, altering weather patterns for the rest of the world?
Typhoon Bavi and Guam: Extreme Weather Forecast, Emergency Funding, and Super El Niño Impacts
Overview
Typhoon Bavi is a developing storm being tracked as potential extreme weather, raising concerns for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. With memories of Super Typhoon Sinlaku’s recent devastation and billions in damages, authorities are reallocating emergency funds and improving weather monitoring to prepare for Bavi’s possible impact. The risk is heightened by rapid Pacific Ocean warming and a likely Super El Niño, which can make storms stronger and harder to predict. Residents are urged to stay alert, follow official advisories, and take precautions, as the situation remains dynamic and the threat of powerful typhoons grows with changing climate patterns.