Tour de France 2026 Guide Sizes Up 23 Teams as Pogacar Chases 5th Title

Q: With Tadej Pogačar looking invincible, can Giro champion Jonas Vingegaard actually challenge him for the yellow jersey?

Yes. Vingegaard is the one rider with a credible chance of taking the Tour from Pogačar, but he starts as the underdog. The case for Vingegaard is strong. He arrives after dominating the Giro d’Italia, taking multiple stages and showing he is back near his best after the crashes and setbacks of the past two seasons. He has also already won the Tour twice, in 2022 and 2023, and remains the only rider in this field with a recent record of beating Pogačar over three weeks. Visma-Lease a Bike may be missing Wout van Aert and Christophe Laporte, but Vingegaard still has solid mountain support in Matteo Jorgenson and Sepp Kuss, plus a team capable of limiting losses in the opening Barcelona team time trial. The problem is that Pogačar looks even stronger. He has won 13 of his 16 race days this season and crushed the Tour de Suisse by more than six minutes. UAE also bring the deepest squad in the race, with Adam Yates, Brandon McNulty and Isaac del Toro giving Pogačar more tactical options and more protection in the mountains than Vingegaard is likely to have. So the likely picture is clear: if anyone can challenge Pogačar, it is Vingegaard. But to actually win yellow, he probably needs both his best climbing level and a near-flawless race, especially in the brutal final week with Alpe d’Huez twice and a hard time trial. On current evidence, Pogačar remains the favorite, with Vingegaard the clear No. 2 and most plausible threat.

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jul 3

Tadej Pogacar enters as the standout favorite, with the guide portraying UAE Team Emirates as the deepest squad and noting he has won 13 of his 16 race days this season.
Jonas Vingegaard is cast as the main threat after dominating the Giro, while Remco Evenepoel leads Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe’s 28-win superteam in a bid to disrupt the expected Pogacar-Vingegaard duel.
Sprint and stage-hunting teams also feature heavily: Jasper Philipsen targets more than his 10 Tour stage wins, Biniam Girmay aims to defend his 2024 green jersey, and Tim Merlier is tipped for early-stage success.
Several teams arrive with major uncertainties, including Decathlon’s decision to field 19-year-old Paul Seixas, Lidl-Trek’s management shake-up, and injury or illness concerns around riders such as Tom Pidcock, Arnaud De Lie and Ivan Romeo.
Across the 23-team field, the guide frames the race as a split between a handful of genuine overall contenders and a large pack chasing breakaways, sprint wins and secondary jerseys.