Treasurys, Yen and Gold Fail as Havens in 2026, With Yen Near 162

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jul 3

Treasury yields have risen, the yen has sunk to about 162 per dollar and gold has dropped sharply from its January peak even as the Iran war rattled markets.
Oil's jump from $60 to $120 after the Strait of Hormuz closure has lifted inflation expectations, while higher real yields, U.S. fiscal worries and wide rate gaps have undercut the usual rush into havens.
U.S. deficit concerns have added pressure on Treasurys, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting a roughly $1.9 trillion shortfall, or 5.8% of GDP, in fiscal 2026.
Japan's currency has looked especially fragile: the Bank of Japan has lifted rates to 30-year highs and Tokyo spent $74 billion intervening, yet the yen still trades at multi-decade lows.
Strategists say the old crisis playbook is breaking down as investors keep chasing AI-led equity gains, leaving havens to trade more on their own macro fundamentals than on fear alone.

Sources

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CNBC10h ago

U.S. Treasurys, Yen, Gold Fail as Safe Havens Amid Inflation, Iran War

Facebook10h ago

Gold is sliding again after suffering its worst quarterly loss in 13 years, with traders citing renewed fears that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer. Spot gold was around

blockscholesresearch.substack.com22h ago

Fed Chair Warsh Says Inflation Risks Have Come Down as Gold Surges Past $4,100

As war drives global inflation, why are investors ignoring traditional risks to chase AI stocks?

With gold, yen, and Treasurys all failing, is the era of the traditional safe haven officially over?

Could the AI rally boosting markets become the very cause of the next systemic financial collapse?

When Safe Havens Fail: The 2026 Collapse of Treasuries, Yen, and Gold in a World of Crisis

Overview

In 2026, traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, the Japanese yen, and gold all broke down at the same time, failing to protect investors during a period of global instability and geopolitical risks such as the war in Iran. This rare event challenged long-standing investment strategies and signaled a new era of uncertainty in global finance. Persistent inflation and fewer expected interest rate cuts weakened the appeal of U.S. Treasuries, while similar pressures and policy uncertainties affected the yen and gold. As a result, investors are rethinking how to manage risk in an unpredictable world.

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