Argentina Face Cape Verde in World Cup Round of 32 as Messi Chases 7th Goal

Q: With an 81% win probability, is Argentina underestimating a Cape Verdean defense that held World Cup contender Spain scoreless?

Probably not, but the 81% projection may understate how awkward Cape Verde could make this. Argentina have earned favorite status. They won all three group matches, have no injury concerns, and Messi has six goals. They also carry a strong World Cup record against African opposition and arrive with a settled, title-winning core under Lionel Scaloni. Opta’s 81% figure reflects that overall gap in quality, depth and attacking power. But Cape Verde’s defense has already shown it can frustrate elite teams. Their 0-0 draw with Spain was not a fluke on the scoreboard alone: goalkeeper Vozinha made seven saves against 27 Spanish shots, and the team’s compact shape, discipline and willingness to defend deep held up under sustained pressure. They also went unbeaten in the group stage, drawing with Uruguay and Saudi Arabia, which suggests their resilience is repeatable, not a one-off. The key point is that Argentina do not appear to be dismissing that threat. Scaloni has publicly warned that Cape Verde are “not here by chance,” while Bubista has made clear his side will not abandon its fearless, counter-attacking approach. That indicates respect rather than complacency. So the odds favor Argentina strongly, but Cape Verde’s defensive record gives real reason for caution. If Argentina are wasteful or allow the game to stay level deep into the match, Cape Verde have already shown they can turn a mismatch on paper into a tense, low-scoring contest.

3 articles · Updated · Al Jazeera English · Jul 3

Friday’s knockout in Miami pits defending champions Argentina against World Cup debutants Cape Verde, with a last-16 place on the line.
Argentina arrive after a perfect nine-point Group J campaign, driven by Lionel Messi’s six goals, while Cape Verde advanced as Group H runners-up with three points.
Opta gives Argentina an 81% chance of winning in regulation and an 89.4% chance of reaching the last 16; the teams have never met before.
Lionel Scaloni said Argentina are treating Cape Verde seriously, while Bubista said the island nation will keep its fearless approach despite the mismatch in pedigree.
If Argentina avoid an upset, Australia or Egypt await next, with Switzerland or Colombia potential quarterfinal opponents.