Dustin May's 6.81 Day ERA Puts Cardinals Behind Braves in Series Opener

Q: Can a pitcher on a strict pitch count outlast an opponent known for struggling in day road games?

Yes. In this matchup, Hurston Waldrep can plausibly “outlast” Dustin May even on a strict pitch count, because the question is less about total innings and more about who is more likely to be effective early. Waldrep is not expected to go deep. Atlanta is managing him carefully after elbow surgery, with his workload likely capped around five innings or roughly 70 pitches. But he does not need seven innings to win the early matchup. If he gives the Braves four or five competent innings, that may be enough against a Cardinals starter who has been notably vulnerable in this exact setting. May’s split is the key evidence. In road day games this season, he has a 6.81 ERA across eight starts, with opponents hitting .301 against him. That makes him a risky bet to hold down Atlanta through the first five innings, especially against a Braves lineup that has seen him before and with Mike Yastrzemski having had success against him historically. The main risk for Atlanta is Waldrep’s control. He walked four batters in two innings in his season debut and also showed command issues in a recent rehab outing. In the current MLB environment, where walk rates are up sharply, that matters. The Cardinals are not especially strikeout-prone, so they have a path if they stay patient. Still, the stronger probability is that Waldrep’s limited but potentially sharp outing, backed by Atlanta’s pitching depth, is enough to beat May’s weaker day-road profile over the first half of the game.

Q: Is the automated strike zone or a physically altered baseball the true culprit behind MLB's offensive explosion?

The stronger evidence points to the baseball, not the automated strike zone, as the main driver of MLB’s recent scoring surge. The ABS challenge system is clearly affecting offense, but mostly by raising walk totals. League walk rate has climbed to about 9.9%, its highest since 2000, as pitchers adjust to a more standardized zone and lose some of the old margin at the top of the strike zone. That helps explain the record-setting weekend for walks and why games feel longer and messier. But it does not fully explain an “offensive explosion,” especially when league batting average remains just .241, near historic lows. What better fits the jump in runs and home runs is the evidence of a lower-drag baseball. Reporting cited in the background says drag on the ball has fallen sharply since mid-May, allowing batted balls to carry farther. Research found barrel distance up by roughly 10 feet from April to late June, the biggest in-season jump of the Statcast era. The same effect showed up in domed and closed-roof parks, which weakens the argument that weather alone is responsible. So the split is important: ABS is likely inflating walks and on-base percentage, while the altered flight of the baseball is the more convincing explanation for the sudden rise in extra-base damage and scoring. In short, the strike zone is changing how plate appearances unfold; the baseball appears to be changing how hard contact is rewarded.

1 articles · Updated · Fox News · Jul 2

Dustin May enters the Cardinals-Braves matchup with a 6.81 ERA in day games, a sharp split from his 2.05 mark at night and a key concern for St. Louis.
His road form adds to the risk: May has a 4.79 away ERA and was tagged for six earned runs in two innings in his last road day start against Kansas City.
Atlanta counters with Hurston Waldrep, making his second Braves appearance of 2026 after allowing two hits and four walks over two relief innings against San Francisco.
The Braves still bring the stronger overall profile at 50-34 despite rotation injuries, while St. Louis is above .500 but sits 8.5 games behind Milwaukee in a crowded NL Central race.