Analyst Backs 37-33 Padres to Upset 38-31 Cardinals

Q: Is Tatis Jr.'s resurgence enough to carry the Padres amid Manny Machado's historic slump?

No. Tatis Jr.’s recent uptick helps, but it is not enough by itself to offset Manny Machado’s collapse or carry San Diego’s offense. Tatis has been better lately, hitting .344 over his last seven games and showing his usual speed with 17 steals on the season. His overall line, though, remains incomplete for a franchise-caliber carrier: a .282 average and .347 OBP are strong, but only two home runs and a .350 slugging percentage are far below his usual impact. The underlying data still suggests his power has not fully returned, with more ground balls, less loft and a reduced pull-side attack. Machado’s slump is the bigger problem. Through 69 games, he is hitting around .172-.175 with a sub-.260 OBP, and his WAR has dipped below replacement level. Even with 11-12 home runs and 35 RBIs, the quality of his at-bats has eroded, with slower bat speed and poor results on balls in play. For a middle-of-the-order star, that is a major drag on the lineup. The broader context matters most. San Diego has one of the weakest team batting profiles in the majors, with an MLB-low average around .214-.219 and very limited power. Their winning record has been sustained more by pitching, especially a top-tier bullpen, than by any one hitter. So Tatis can stabilize the Padres and raise their ceiling if his power returns, but amid Machado’s historic slump, he is not enough on his own. San Diego needs a healthier offense around him, not just one star getting hot.

Q: Can the Cardinals' surprising youth movement overcome a shaky bullpen against the slumping Padres?

Yes, but only if St. Louis gets enough from Dustin May and its young lineup strikes early. The Cardinals’ youth movement is real. Players such as Masyn Winn, Iván Herrera, JJ Wetherholt and Jordan Walker have helped turn what looked like a rebuild into a Wild Card-caliber season, and recent power from younger bats shows they can change a game quickly. That gives St. Louis a path against a Padres club that has been hard to trust offensively, even with stars like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. The problem is the bullpen. St. Louis enters with a middling 4.21 relief ERA, and the deeper numbers are more concerning: outside of a couple of steadier arms, the group had a 5.69 ERA with 65 walks in 106 innings entering Sunday. Oliver Marmol has acknowledged that only a few relievers have been consistently reliable. If May exits early, that becomes a major vulnerability. That matters because San Diego’s bullpen is one of the league’s strengths, carrying a 3.09 ERA, while the Padres also have some history of success against May. Weather could also favor offense, with wind blowing out to right. So the Cardinals can overcome the bullpen issue, but the margin is thin. Their best formula is a strong May outing and enough production from the young core before the game turns into a reliever battle. If it does, the edge shifts to San Diego.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Jun 15

San Diego is the recommended play against St. Louis, with the analyst arguing the Cardinals are priced too heavily despite a narrow gap between the clubs' 37-33 and 38-31 records.
Lucas Giolito gets the start for the Padres at 2-1 with a 4.35 ERA, while Cardinals hitters are just 1-for-14 against him in limited prior matchups.
St. Louis counters with Dustin May, who is 4-6 with a 4.26 ERA; the analyst says San Diego's familiarity with the former Dodgers pitcher could help Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. produce.
The pick rests on the view that St. Louis is solid but beatable at home and still lacks a true frontline arm, leaving value on the Padres despite May being seen as the better starter.