Climate Study Extends Earth's Plant Biosphere by Up to 1.8 Billion Years
Updated
Updated · ZME Science · Jun 25
Climate Study Extends Earth's Plant Biosphere by Up to 1.8 Billion Years
2 articles · Updated · ZME Science · Jun 25
Summary
A new 3D climate model puts Earth’s photosynthetic biosphere lifespan at roughly 1.35 billion to 1.86 billion more years, pushing the upper estimate hundreds of millions of years beyond many earlier forecasts.
The study says plants face a long-term squeeze from a sun that brightens about 10% every billion years: stronger heat can kill vegetation, while stronger rock weathering can strip atmospheric CO2 needed for photosynthesis.
In a weak-weathering future, most land plants hit dangerous heat limits around 1.68 billion years from now, while the toughest could last to about 1.87 billion years.
In a strong-weathering future, a large plant biosphere could fail around 1.35 billion years at 10 ppm CO2, but CAM plants, algae and some aquatic species might persist until about 1.84 billion years at 1 ppm.
The finding suggests older planets around brightening stars may still host detectable photosynthetic life even after they no longer look conventionally habitable.
Can we engineer survivor plants to create a new biosphere that outlasts Earth’s natural 1.8-billion-year deadline?
If Earth's future plants survive on just 1 ppm of CO2, what new biosignatures should our telescopes be looking for now?
Earth's life may have 1.8 billion years left, but Biosphere 2 failed in two. What ecological chain reaction could blindside us first?
New Study Extends Earth's Plant Life Expectancy to Nearly 2 Billion More Years
Overview
A new climate study led by Jacob Haqq-Misra and Eric Wolf reveals that Earth's plant life could survive for up to 1.8 to 1.9 billion more years, much longer than previously thought. Earlier research estimated land plants would go extinct in about 1 billion years, with most predictions ranging from 0.5 to 1.5 billion years. The main reason for this change is that as the Sun gradually brightens, it increases weathering, which removes more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This CO2 loss makes life harder for plants, but the new study shows some plants may adapt and persist much longer than expected.