Study Puts Earth's Plant Extinction 1.84-1.87 Billion Years Away as Sun Brightens
Updated
Updated · New Atlas · Jul 1
Study Puts Earth's Plant Extinction 1.84-1.87 Billion Years Away as Sun Brightens
3 articles · Updated · New Atlas · Jul 1
Summary
Haqq-Misra and Wolf estimate Earth's last plants could disappear in about 1.84 to 1.87 billion years, pushing the likely end of the vegetative biosphere to just before the 2 billion-year mark.
Their model tracks rising solar radiation and changing atmospheric CO2 along two paths: one where heat becomes the main limit, and another where carbon scarcity kills plants first.
In the temperature-driven case, Earth warms by a little over 20C in the next 1.5 billion years, then by another 40C over the following 500 million years.
In the low-CO2 case, atmospheric carbon dioxide falls from just above 400 ppm to a little over 30 ppm within 1 billion years, leaving few plants able to survive.
The study still leaves room for unknowns such as future geoengineering or evolution, while noting microbial life could outlast plants underground even after oceans vaporize around 1.5 billion years from now.
How will Earth's last surviving plants breathe when atmospheric CO2 nearly vanishes in the distant future?
Does Earth's surprising resilience against a dying sun mean habitable alien worlds are more common than we thought?
New Study Doubles Timeline for Earth's Plant Survival to 1.8 Billion Years
Overview
A groundbreaking study by Jacob Haqq-Misra and Eric Wolf, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, has nearly doubled previous estimates for how long Earth's plant life can survive. Using the advanced ExoCAM 3D climate model, the researchers found that Earth's flora could persist for an additional 1.35 to 1.87 billion years. This new projection paints a much more resilient picture for Earth's ecosystems, showing that plant life is tougher and more adaptable than once believed. The findings highlight the importance of advanced modeling in understanding the future of life on our planet.