Aces, Liberty Lose 2 Stars for WNBA Cup Final as Wilson and Sabally Sit Out

Q: Without their MVP, can the Aces overcome their rivals in the high-stakes Commissioner's Cup championship?

Yes—but the Aces enter as underdogs without A’ja Wilson. Wilson’s absence is enormous. She leads the WNBA in scoring at 25.7 points per game, averages 9.4 rebounds and 2.0 blocks, and has missed only seven games in seven seasons. Against a Liberty team built around Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu, losing that two-way dominance strips Las Vegas of its best scorer, rim protector and late-game safety valve. Still, Las Vegas has a real path. The Aces remain one of the league’s most talented teams, with Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young capable of carrying the offense, and Chennedy Carter’s return gives them a needed bench spark. Analysts have pointed to Carter as a possible X-factor, and Young’s production has often tracked directly with whether Las Vegas wins. For the Aces to pull it off, they likely need a balanced scoring night, strong perimeter defense and to reach roughly 80 points. The matchup is not entirely one-sided because New York is also short-handed. Satou Sabally is out in concussion protocol, and the Liberty have been vulnerable to turnovers. But they still appear better positioned, especially at home in Brooklyn, after beating Las Vegas 87-76 on June 23 and holding statistical edges in 3-point shooting and free-throw accuracy. So the Aces can overcome their rivals, but only if their veteran core delivers an efficient, disciplined game. Without Wilson, the margin for error is extremely small, and the Liberty deserve to be viewed as the favorite.

Q: Can Sixth Player of the Year favorite Chennedy Carter fill an MVP's shoes in a championship game?

Yes—but only as a scorer and swing factor, not as a full replacement for A’ja Wilson’s all-around MVP impact. Carter gives Las Vegas its best chance to survive Wilson’s absence because she can create offense quickly and efficiently. She is averaging 14.1 points and has shown much bigger bursts, including a recent 27-point game. Analysts have identified her as the Aces’ X-factor, and some have even floated her as a Commissioner's Cup MVP candidate if Las Vegas pulls the upset. Her ability to attack off the dribble, score in transition and change pace off the bench is exactly what the Aces need against New York. But filling Wilson’s shoes is a much larger ask. Wilson leads the WNBA in scoring and blocks and is among the league leaders in rebounding, meaning the Aces are losing elite production on both ends. Carter can help replace points, but she does not replicate Wilson’s rim protection, rebounding, interior gravity or defensive command. That burden will have to be shared by Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and the rest of the rotation. The matchup also matters. New York recently beat Las Vegas and holds edges in 3-point shooting and free-throw shooting, even while missing Satou Sabally. If Carter is efficient and controlled, she can absolutely deliver a championship-level performance. But for the Aces to win, they will need a collective answer to Wilson’s absence, not just one explosive night from Carter.

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Jun 30

Tuesday's Commissioner's Cup final will be missing A'ja Wilson and Satou Sabally, with Las Vegas ruling out Wilson and New York keeping Sabally in concussion protocol.
Wilson hurt her right leg after rolling an ankle Sunday against Chicago but still finished with 30 points and 15 rebounds; Sabally has missed three straight games after taking an elbow to the face last week.
Wilson had played every game in the Aces' 14-5 start and is averaging 25.7 points, 9.4 rebounds and 2 blocks, making her absence a major hit to both Las Vegas and the league showcase.
Brooklyn still hosts a marquee matchup at 7 p.m. ET between the winners of the last four WNBA titles, with Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young among the remaining headliners.