South Africa Q2 Inflation Survey to Steer July Rates as 2026 Expectations Face 3.6% Baseline
Updated
Updated · businessday.co.za · Jun 28
South Africa Q2 Inflation Survey to Steer July Rates as 2026 Expectations Face 3.6% Baseline
3 articles · Updated · businessday.co.za · Jun 28
Summary
The BER’s Q2 2026 inflation expectations survey opens South Africa’s data week and is expected to shape the Reserve Bank’s July rate decision.
Oil-driven inflation risks have worsened since the Q1 survey, which showed 2026 expectations easing to 3.6%, while the SARB in May lifted its policy rate 25 basis points to 7% after April inflation hit 4%.
Absa said the May 18-June 4 survey may be backward-looking because it largely misses the later pullback in oil prices, but any meaningful rise in expectations would still trouble policymakers under the new 3% target.
Tuesday’s quarterly bulletin will give a read on first-quarter growth and household finances, while May trade data may show the surplus narrowing from April’s R15.2 billion as imports stayed elevated.
Fuel-price adjustments, June manufacturing and private-sector PMIs, and June vehicle sales later this week will test how lower oil prices, weak employment and tighter borrowing costs are feeding through the economy.