Updated

Updated · USA TODAY · Jun 28

Canada, Brazil, Paraguay and Morocco Reach World Cup Last 16 After 4 Round-of-32 Wins

Updated

Updated · USA TODAY · Jun 28

Canada, Brazil, Paraguay and Morocco Reach World Cup Last 16 After 4 Round-of-32 Wins

Q: Can Canada’s historic knockout win propel them further than co-hosts USA and Mexico in the tournament?

Yes — Canada already has a head start, and it now has a realistic chance to go deeper than at least one of its co-hosts. Canada is the only co-host already confirmed in the Round of 16 after its 1-0 win over South Africa, the program’s first men’s World Cup knockout victory. That alone means Canada is currently ahead of Mexico and the United States in the live bracket, because both were still awaiting or playing their Round of 32 matches as of June 30. Whether Canada finishes deeper than both depends on the next few days. If Mexico loses to Ecuador or the U.S. loses to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Canada will have gone further than that team by default. If both also reach the Round of 16, Canada would need to beat Morocco in Houston on July 4 and hope the others fall in their own Round of 16 ties. There is evidence for optimism, but also limits. Canada has shown momentum under Jesse Marsch, following a draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina, a 6-0 win over Qatar, and now a composed knockout win. Playing in North America also helps. But most pre-tournament models still rated Canada, the U.S. and Mexico below the leading contenders, and some expert forecasts expected all three hosts to top out around the Round of 16. So Canada can absolutely go further than the U.S. and Mexico — and is best positioned right now — but one more win is likely needed to clearly separate itself from both.

Q: With Germany already eliminated, which top-ranked contender is most vulnerable to a shocking Round of 32 exit?

France looks like the most vulnerable elite contender still left in the Round of 32. That is not because France is weak overall; it remains one of the tournament favorites alongside Spain and England. But the available analysis points to a specific weakness that could be exposed immediately against Sweden. France’s defense has been described as shaky rather than dominant, and even in earlier matches it showed signs of vulnerability. Senegal, for example, reportedly caused France real problems, and France was seen as “far from indestructible.” Sweden is also a dangerous opponent for exactly that reason. The Swedish attack, led by Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, gives France a difficult stylistic matchup. Both forwards are viewed as high-level No. 9s capable of testing a back line that has not looked fully secure. That makes France unusually exposed for a team of its ranking and expectations. Portugal is another credible answer because its form has been inconsistent and Croatia is an experienced knockout opponent. Belgium has also been flagged as vulnerable in what some analysts called a near toss-up with Senegal. But among the true top-tier favorites still alive, France stands out most clearly because the upset path is easy to see: a strong Sweden front line attacking a defense that has already looked uncertain. With Germany and the Netherlands already gone, France appears to be the biggest Round of 32 danger among the remaining heavyweights.

3 articles · Updated · USA TODAY · Jun 28

Four teams booked the first round-of-16 places: Canada beat South Africa 1-0, Brazil edged Japan 2-1, Paraguay ousted Germany 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw, and Morocco beat the Netherlands 3-2 on penalties after 1-1.
Canada advanced on Stephen Eustaquio’s stoppage-time winner, while Brazil also needed a late goal and both Paraguay and Morocco survived shootouts to move on.
The round of 16 starts July 4 with Canada facing the Morocco-Netherlands winner in Houston and Paraguay meeting the France-Sweden winner in Philadelphia.
Round-of-32 play continues through July 3, with Brazil next set to face the Ivory Coast-Norway winner as the 2026 knockout bracket fills out.