Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jun 30
Brent Crude Heads for 38% Quarterly Slump as Iran Truce Erases War Premium
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Jun 30

Brent Crude Heads for 38% Quarterly Slump as Iran Truce Erases War Premium

1 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jun 30

Summary

  • $73.18 a barrel Brent is on course for a 38% drop in April-June, its steepest quarterly fall since the pandemic with one trading day left.
  • Washington and Tehran's interim peace agreement, plus planned talks to end the conflict, drove oil lower through June as fears over Middle East supply disruption eased.
  • That slide has nearly wiped out the war spike: Brent is now only about $1 above its pre-conflict level after surging 94% in January-March.
  • Premier Miton fund manager Simon Prior said the selloff may be overdone because countries still need to rebuild crude reserves and confidence in using the Strait may return slowly.

Insights

Oil prices have plunged, but with infrastructure in ruins, is the market ignoring a looming supply shock?
With strategic oil reserves at a 40-year low, how vulnerable is the global economy to the next major crisis?
After a near-catastrophic shutdown, what will it take to secure the world's most critical oil chokepoint for good?