Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Jun 30

Paraguay, Morocco Oust Germany and Netherlands on Penalties, Sending 2 More Favorites Out

Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Jun 30

Paraguay, Morocco Oust Germany and Netherlands on Penalties, Sending 2 More Favorites Out

Q: Is substituting players for penalty shootouts now a statistically proven tactical mistake for coaches?

No. The latest evidence suggests it is a risky tactic, not a statistically proven mistake. The strongest data point in the current debate is Opta’s finding that 80% of players introduced after the 115th minute in major tournaments missed their subsequent penalty. That is striking, and Monday’s World Cup games reinforced it: Paraguay’s Fabián Balbuena and the Netherlands’ Justin Kluivert were both sent on late with shootouts in mind and both missed. But that statistic is too narrow to settle the issue on its own. It appears to be based on a very small sample, and small samples can exaggerate trends. It also does not prove causation. Late substitutes may fail not because substitution is inherently flawed, but because they enter cold, touch the ball very little, and carry the obvious pressure of being designated specialists. There is also counter-evidence. Coaches have used shootout substitutions successfully before, most famously when the Netherlands brought on Tim Krul in the 2014 World Cup and he helped win the shootout. More broadly, specialist takers can still be valuable if they are mentally prepared and physically ready. So the smarter reading is that coaches should be cautious, not that the tactic is disproven. The current evidence says late penalty-only substitutions carry unusually high psychological risk, especially for outfield players. That makes them a gamble rather than an automatic error.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 30

Paraguay and Morocco reached the World Cup last 16 on Monday after separate penalty-shootout wins over Germany and the Netherlands following 1-1 draws after extra time.
Germany fell 4-3 on penalties after Kai Havertz canceled Paraguay’s first-half lead, with a late Jonathan Tah header ruled out by VAR before the shootout — Germany’s first World Cup defeat on penalties.
Morocco advanced 3-2 on penalties in Monterrey after Issa Diop equalized in stoppage time, erasing Cody Gakpo’s 72nd-minute goal; only 5 of 10 spot kicks were converted.
Brazil avoided a third upset, beating Japan 2-1 with Gabriel Martinelli’s stoppage-time winner after Kaishu Sano put Japan ahead early.
The results deepened the tournament’s underdog run and further thinned the field of traditional powers as the knockout stage gathered pace.