NOAA Sees Kp 5 Aurora Monday as June 26 CME Triggers G1 Storm

Q: With a full moon and summer twilight, what are the real chances of seeing tonight's Northern Lights?

The real chances are low for most people, and only modestly better near the U.S.-Canada border if the storm strengthens and skies are clear. Forecasts do support auroral activity overnight Monday into early Tuesday. NOAA is calling for roughly G1 conditions, with a chance of G2, which is enough to push the aurora into parts of the northern Lower 48. That means northern areas of Washington, Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Maine have the best shot, with possible lower-horizon glimpses farther south. But visibility is being undercut by two major obstacles: late-June twilight and the full Strawberry Moon. Near the northern tier, the sky stays bright much later at this time of year, and in some places never gets fully dark enough for faint aurora to stand out well. The full moon adds more sky brightness, which can wash out weaker displays. In practice, that means a marginal or moderate aurora may show up better on a camera than to the naked eye. The best odds are in the darkest rural locations, with a clear northern horizon, between about 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time, especially if real-time data show the interplanetary magnetic field turning southward and staying there. If the storm only reaches the lower end of forecast strength, many viewers may see nothing. If it briefly reaches stronger G2 levels, people close to the Canadian border could still catch a visible glow or low arcs despite the moon and twilight.

Q: As solar activity ramps up, are spectacular auroras becoming the new normal for the northern US?

Yes — but only for now, not as a permanent shift. Auroras are becoming more frequent and sometimes more dramatic across the northern U.S. because Solar Cycle 25 is near its peak, a phase when sunspots, solar flares and coronal mass ejections are more common. That raises the odds of geomagnetic storms strong enough to push the auroral oval farther south, making displays visible not just near the Canadian border but at times across parts of the Midwest, Northeast and even lower latitudes. That is the context for the June 29-30 event. Forecasts tied to a June 26 coronal mass ejection suggest G1 to G2 geomagnetic storm conditions, enough to give northern-tier states a reasonable chance of seeing the lights if skies cooperate. Similar events have become more common in 2024 through 2026, including rare major storms that sent auroras deep into the continental U.S. But “new normal” overstates it. Spectacular auroras still depend on specific solar eruptions, storm strength, cloud cover, darkness and local light pollution. Even during an active solar maximum, many forecasts produce only faint glows or no visible display at all in the lower 48. This week’s full moon and short summer nights are also working against visibility. The better way to describe it is a cyclical surge, not a lasting reset. The northern U.S. is in an unusually favorable window for aurora viewing through roughly 2026 into 2027, but that should ease as the solar cycle declines.

3 articles · Updated · Forbes · Jun 28

NOAA forecasts a Kp index of 5 out of 9 for Monday night, raising the odds that the northern lights will appear brighter and farther south than usual.
A coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on June 26 is expected to reach Earth on Monday and spark minor geomagnetic storm conditions — rated G1 on NOAA’s 5-level scale.
Northern Washington, Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula have a low chance of seeing the aurora, while much of Alaska falls in a high-likelihood zone.
Sunday night is expected to be quiet by comparison, with NOAA projecting a Kp index of just 1, limiting likely visibility to northern Canada and Alaska.
NOAA says the best viewing window is roughly 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. from dark locations with a clear northern horizon.