ECB's Kazāks Sees 32% July Hike Odds as Need for Rushed Tightening Fades

1 articles · Updated · investinglive.com · Jun 29

Mārtiņš Kazāks said the euro zone no longer needs multiple ECB rate hikes in a rushed way because the probability of severe negative scenarios has fallen sharply.
Oil prices dropping back to pre-war levels have reduced the shock to the economy, lowering the risk of second-round inflation effects as price pressures moderate and growth prospects improve.
Markets already reflect that shift: traders price only a 32% chance of a July hike and about 28 basis points of tightening by year-end.
That leaves September as the earliest likely window for the next move, with policymakers increasingly inclined to wait for incoming data over the summer.