ECB Sees Euro-Area Pay Growth Accelerating to 2.6% in H2 as Iran War Lifts Inflation Risks
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 17
ECB Sees Euro-Area Pay Growth Accelerating to 2.6% in H2 as Iran War Lifts Inflation Risks
3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 17
Summary
The ECB’s wage tracker shows euro-area pay growth rising to an annual 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters, picking up from the first half of 2026.
That rebound still leaves wage gains far below the 5.2% peak reached in 2024, suggesting labor-cost pressure has eased sharply from last year’s highs.
The forecast matters for policymakers because the ECB is weighing whether the Iran war could rekindle inflation risks even as underlying wage growth remains comparatively contained.