ECB Set to Raise Deposit Rate to 2.25% as 74 of 80 Economists Back June Move
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 3
ECB Set to Raise Deposit Rate to 2.25% as 74 of 80 Economists Back June Move
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 3
Summary
A 25-basis-point ECB rate increase on June 11 is now seen as a done deal, with 74 of 80 economists in a Reuters poll expecting the deposit rate to reach 2.25%.
Inflation is driving that view: euro zone headline inflation hit 3.2% in May, core inflation rose to 2.5%, and Brent crude remains about 40% above pre-war levels as the Iran war disrupts energy flows.
Markets and economists also increasingly expect one more hike this year, most likely in September, though views remain split beyond that and only a handful foresee three or more increases.
The tightening outlook comes as growth weakens, with 2026 expansion forecast at just 0.7% after a third straight downgrade and two-thirds of economists saying stagflation risks are high.
With war driving inflation, are ECB rate hikes the right medicine or a poison pill for Europe's economy?
As stagflation looms over Europe, are leaders prepared for the social fallout of their economic choices?
Is the Hormuz crisis creating a new financial world order that bypasses the US dollar?
Eurozone Faces June 2026 ECB Rate Hike: Inflation, Energy Crisis, and Economic Risks
Overview
The European Central Bank is set to raise interest rates in June 2026, a move widely expected by policymakers and driven by persistent inflation concerns, especially from sustained energy price pressures. Despite hopes for peace in global conflicts, economists believe this will not stop the planned hike. The euro area faces significant uncertainty, with a weaker economy and softer labor market making aggressive tightening risky. The ECB must balance controlling inflation with the risk of deepening economic slowdown, as higher rates could further strain consumers and businesses already facing rising costs and cautious lending conditions.