Tesla Sees Q2 Deliveries at 406,024, as 2026 Growth Slips to Barely 1%
Updated
Updated · Electrek · Jun 26
Tesla Sees Q2 Deliveries at 406,024, as 2026 Growth Slips to Barely 1%
3 articles · Updated · Electrek · Jun 26
Summary
406,024 vehicles is Tesla’s company-compiled Wall Street consensus for Q2 2026, implying 5.7% growth from 384,122 a year earlier after two straight years of annual sales declines.
22 analysts expect 392,625 Model 3/Y deliveries and just 12,978 from all other models, down from 16,130 in Q1, underscoring Tesla’s continued reliance on its aging high-volume lineup.
1,654,808 deliveries are now projected for full-year 2026, only about 1% above 2025 and roughly 35,000 below the 2026 consensus Tesla published in March.
13.8 GWh of energy storage deployments are forecast for Q2, up from 8.8 GWh in Q1, making energy the brighter growth segment as vehicle volumes stall.
2,649,054 deliveries by 2030 remain the long-range consensus, but a 760,060-vehicle standard deviation shows analysts are deeply split on whether Tesla can reaccelerate.