Wilson Projects 32 First-Round NHL Picks, Slots Gavin McKenna at No. 1

Q: A defenseman rose from obscurity to a top-three pick. Is his path the new blueprint for NHL stardom?

No. Chase Reid’s rise looks more like an exceptional case than a new standard model for NHL stardom. Reid is the player in question. Vancouver took the Soo Greyhounds defenseman third overall after one of the sharpest climbs in this class. He went from being released by Waterloo in the USHL and playing in the NAHL to becoming the draft’s top defenseman for some scouts. By the end of the season, he was logging major minutes in the OHL, producing 48 points in 35 games, and earning comparisons to NHL defenders such as Zach Werenski and Adam Fox. What his story does show is that NHL teams are increasingly willing to reward late bloomers if the underlying traits are elite. Scouts focused on Reid’s skating, processing speed, puck-moving, size growth to 6-foot-2, and ability to drive play at pace. That fits a broader scouting trend: teams care less about whether a player dominated early and more about whether his tools and habits project to NHL speed. But the wider draft board argues against any single “blueprint.” Other top defensemen came through very different systems: Keaton Verhoeff through the NCAA, Alberts Smits through European pro leagues and the Olympics, Carson Carels through the WHL pipeline. The 2026 class itself underlines that there are multiple valid routes. So Reid’s path matters, but mainly as proof that setbacks are not disqualifying. It is a reminder that development is nonlinear, not evidence that obscurity-to-top-three is becoming the norm.

Q: With four first-round picks, have the St. Louis Blues just laid the foundation for a future NHL dynasty?

No. Four first-round picks give the St. Louis Blues a strong chance to accelerate a rebuild or retool, but they do not by themselves signal the start of an NHL dynasty. What the Blues did accomplish is meaningful. They came away with four first-rounders — defenseman Malte Gustafsson at No. 11, center Alexander Command at No. 15, forward Nikita Klepov at No. 16, and winger Marcus Nordmark at No. 29 — while holding a total of 12 picks. That kind of volume can deepen a prospect pool quickly and gives new GM Alex Steen flexibility to build around multiple timelines. The issue is ceiling. Independent prospect analysis cited in the draft coverage says the Blues’ system has solid depth but lacks a truly elite, franchise-defining prospect. This draft also was viewed as deep, especially on defense, but not as one centered on a generational talent outside the very top. St. Louis picked well outside that range, so the odds of landing a cornerstone superstar were lower than for teams drafting at the top. There is also the usual draft uncertainty. As TSN’s Craig Button noted, only a fraction of any draft class goes on to become long-term NHL players, and projecting 17- and 18-year-olds remains imprecise. Even strong organizations need years of development, smart trades, cap management and health to turn draft capital into contention. The Blues may have laid groundwork for a stronger future. Calling it a dynasty foundation now would be premature.

3 articles · Updated · WGR550 · Jun 25

Friday’s Round 1 in Buffalo opens with Gavin McKenna atop Wilson’s 2026 NHL mock draft, with the Penn State winger projected to go No. 1 to Toronto.
32 projected first-round picks are led by McKenna and Swedish winger Ivar Stenberg at No. 2 to San Jose, while defenseman Chase Reid goes No. 3 to Vancouver.
10 or more defensemen could hear their names called in Round 1, according to the report, with Carson Carels, Keaton Verhoeff and Alberts Smits among the blue-liners near the top.
Buffalo is projected to use its two first-rounders on center Caleb Malhotra at No. 4 and winger Adam Novotny at No. 20 as the draft begins at KeyBank Center.
Rounds 2-7 follow Saturday at 11 a.m., with the mock underscoring a class viewed as wing-heavy at the top and unusually deep on defense.