NHL.com Analysts Project Gavin McKenna at No. 1 in 2026 Draft as Sabres Eye No. 4

Q: Beyond Toronto's top pick, which team’s draft-day decisions will ultimately define the first round?

The San Jose Sharks’ decisions are most likely to define the first round beyond Toronto’s expected choice at No. 1. San Jose sits at the pivot point of the draft with the No. 2 and No. 9 picks, and general manager Mike Grier has signaled he is open to moving down. That combination of premium draft capital and trade flexibility gives the Sharks the greatest power to reshape the board. At No. 2 alone, they could either stay with a projected forward such as Ivar Stenberg or address a major organizational need on defense with a player like Chase Reid. Whichever path they choose will immediately alter the options for Vancouver, Buffalo and the rest of the top 10. The No. 9 pick makes San Jose even more influential. Holding two top-nine selections allows the Sharks to control both the elite tier and the next wave of prospects, or to package one of those picks in a trade that could trigger broader movement across the round. Few teams can affect both talent flow and trade activity that way. St. Louis is the other major team to watch because of its multiple first-rounders, including No. 29 and several mid-round positions, but the Blues’ impact is more likely to be spread across the middle and back half of the round. Buffalo’s No. 4 pick is also highly intriguing after the Bowen Byram trade, especially if the Sabres choose between top defensemen. Still, the Sharks have the clearest chance to set the tone of the entire first round.

3 articles · Updated · NHL.com · Jun 24

June 26-27’s NHL Draft got its final NHL.com first-round mock, with Adam Kimelman and Mike Morreale both slotting Penn State winger Gavin McKenna to Toronto at No. 1.
The consensus top three stays intact after recent trades: San Jose takes Ivar Stenberg at No. 2, Vancouver selects center Caleb Malhotra at No. 3, and Buffalo becomes the key swing team at No. 4.
Buffalo’s new leverage came from Tuesday’s Bowen Byram trade with Chicago, while San Jose also added Ottawa’s No. 9 pick in the William Eklund deal and now holds two top-nine selections.
The mock highlights a defense-heavy early board after the top forwards, with Buffalo, the Rangers, Calgary and Seattle all projected to consider blue-line prospects near the top 10.
The first round starts Friday at 7 p.m. ET in Buffalo, with rounds 2-7 on Saturday as teams finalize plans shaped by lottery results and a late trade frenzy.