Bain Cuts Luxury Goods Growth Forecast to 2%-4% as Iran War Hits Demand
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 25
Bain Cuts Luxury Goods Growth Forecast to 2%-4% as Iran War Hits Demand
3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 25
Summary
Bain lowered its 2026 personal luxury goods growth forecast to 2%-4% at constant exchange rates, down from the 3%-5% range it projected in November.
The downgrade reflects slower sector growth tied to the Iran war, which is weighing on demand for high-end handbags, watches and other luxury goods.
Bain still sees support from new wealth creation tied to major AI-related listings, including a potential SpaceX IPO and future US share sales by OpenAI and Anthropic.
Even after the cut, the new forecast remains above last year's 1% growth, as the industry tries to recover from a broader slowdown and shifting spending toward experiences.