Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 16
Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Forecast to $90 as US-Iran Hormuz Deal Revives Supply
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 16

Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Forecast to $90 as US-Iran Hormuz Deal Revives Supply

2 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 16

Summary

  • Morgan Stanley lowered its Dated Brent forecast to an average $90 a barrel for the third quarter from $100, and to $80 for the fourth quarter.
  • The bank tied the cuts to an interim US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which it said should revive regional output and increase oil supplies.
  • Analysts including Martijn Rats said the expected recovery in Middle East production has been brought forward by one to two weeks.
  • The revised outlook points to faster supply normalization in a waterway critical to physical crude flows, easing the price pressure embedded in earlier forecasts.

Insights

The Hormuz deal promises cheaper oil, but will sea mines and political tolls prevent prices from truly dropping?
Is the US-Iran agreement a real solution, or just a temporary ceasefire in a long-term energy war?