Current models show the dust trails behind the shower's rare 1998 and 2004 outbursts are not in Earth's path this year, undercutting claims of a repeat 100-meteor display.
The shower remains one of the calendar's most erratic—usually near zero, occasionally above 100 an hour in ideal ZHR terms—with slow meteors entering at about 18 kilometers per second.
Northern observers can still watch around the peak and adjacent nights, but solstice twilight, light pollution and the difference between ZHR and real-world counts make sparse activity the likeliest outcome.