Prediction Markets Draw $5.4 Billion in World Cup Bets as Kalshi Tops March Madness
Updated
Updated · Fortune · Jun 22
Prediction Markets Draw $5.4 Billion in World Cup Bets as Kalshi Tops March Madness
1 articles · Updated · Fortune · Jun 22
Summary
$5.4 billion in World Cup wagers has already flowed through Kalshi and Polymarket just 11 days into the tournament, underscoring how quickly prediction markets have become a mainstream way to bet on live events.
Kalshi reported $2.9 billion in trading volume, including combination bets, already surpassing its $2.51 billion March Madness haul and dwarfing this season's $685 million Champions League total.
Polymarket logged $2.5 billion in cumulative World Cup volume since last July, while Robinhood said its Rothera venture executed more than 500 million contracts this month, including 400 million since the June 11 kickoff.
Big upsets have amplified both the appeal and the risk: one Polymarket user turned a roughly $300,000 Portugal wager into nearly $1 million, while another $4 million bet against Spain beating Cabo Verde paid about $9 million.
Those windfalls are sharpening scrutiny of insider trading and regulation, as U.S. authorities and some foreign governments debate whether event contracts are financial products or unlicensed gambling.