Updated

Updated · Financial Times · Jun 11

World Cup Prediction Markets Near $2 Billion as 48-Team Tournament Drives Record Betting

Updated

Updated · Financial Times · Jun 11

World Cup Prediction Markets Near $2 Billion as 48-Team Tournament Drives Record Betting

Q: Why is $58 million being bet on a team with almost no chance of winning the World Cup?

The $58 million on Uzbekistan is not really a sign that traders think it will win the World Cup. It is mostly a byproduct of Polymarket’s liquidity-rewards system. On Polymarket, users can earn rewards for posting buy and sell orders that make a market easier to trade. In very low-probability markets, traders often place orders on both sides near the midpoint because that maximizes their reward score. That means capital can pile into a long-shot team even when its actual chance is tiny. Uzbekistan’s quoted odds are about 0.01 percent, but the market still shows heavy “volume” because traders are farming rewards, not expressing genuine belief. That distinction matters. The $58 million figure reflects trading activity and liquidity provision, not necessarily net conviction that Uzbekistan will lift the trophy. In prediction markets, volume can be inflated by market-making strategies, repeated trades, and incentives tied to keeping spreads tight. The broader context also helps explain it. The 2026 World Cup is expected to be the biggest betting event ever, with nearly $2 billion already wagered on winner markets and total global betting projected around $50 billion. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are pushing hard to capture that activity with aggressive promotions and new contract types. So the short answer is that the money is there because the platform pays people to supply liquidity, and extreme long-shot markets can become attractive places to do that.

3 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Jun 11

$1.92 billion in wagers on the World Cup winner has already flowed through Polymarket and Kalshi more than five weeks before the final, putting the market on track to become the biggest in prediction-market history.
Polymarket alone has topped $1.8 billion and Kalshi about $120 million as operators push new football bets and heavy marketing around the expanded 48-team format, which adds 40 matches.
Macquarie estimates total World Cup betting across all venues could exceed $50 billion this year, up 43% from the 2022 tournament in Qatar.
Polymarket's trading has also shown unusual behavior: Uzbekistan drew more than $58 million in volume despite 0.01% title odds, with activity tied partly to liquidity rewards rather than genuine win expectations.
The boom comes as prediction markets face scrutiny over manipulation and insider-trading risks, while FIFA partner ADI Predict Street has attracted less than $100,000 across all its World Cup markets.

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Record $40 Billion Trading Volume: The Unprecedented Scale and Impact of 2026 World Cup Betting Markets

Overview

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is transforming sports betting with its expanded format—48 nations, 12 groups, and 104 matches—creating more games and teams than ever before. This massive increase leads to a surge in betting opportunities, especially in group advancement and knockout rounds. As a result, both traditional sportsbooks and prediction markets are seeing record-breaking trading volumes. The unprecedented scale of the tournament drives new financial activity, with more outcomes for bettors and traders to consider, making the 2026 World Cup a landmark event in the evolution of global sports wagering.

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