India Faces 3-Year Sugar Export Halt as El Nino and Ethanol Squeeze Supply

3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 22

India is expected to have little sugar available for export for at least three more seasons, extending a squeeze that could even force imports if cane output weakens further.
El Nino is forecast to cut monsoon rainfall to the lowest in 11 years, with June rain already more than 40% below average, prompting farmers to delay cane planting or switch acreage to soybeans and pulses.
Output is now pegged at 27.9 million tons, down from 30.95 million and below annual consumption of about 28.5 million, leaving opening stocks near 3.5 million tons—the lowest in more than three decades.
At the same time, India is accelerating ethanol use: demand could more than double to about 30 billion litres by 2039-40, and officials are expected to keep denying export approvals season by season to protect domestic supply.
India averaged 6.8 million tons of sugar exports in the five seasons through 2022-23—about 10% of global shipments—so a prolonged absence would tighten supplies across Asia, Africa and the Middle East and support world prices.

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India Faces Multi-Year Sugar Export Halt Due to El Nino, Ethanol Squeeze

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India Bans Sugar Exports Until 2026: Impacts on Farmers, Global Prices, and the Future of the Sugar Sector

Overview

India has enacted a sweeping ban on all sugar exports, effective immediately and lasting until September 30, 2026, by changing its export policy from 'restricted' to 'prohibited' for all sugar types. This move aims to secure domestic supply and stabilize prices amid concerns about stock accuracy and rising demand for ethanol production. While the ban is comprehensive, limited exemptions exist for quota exports to the EU and US, as well as for shipments already in transit and government-to-government food security agreements. If not extended, the policy will automatically revert to its previous status, signaling a possible return to controlled exports.

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