Jim Hansen Team Sees 2026 Heat Record as El Niño Unleashes 23 ZJ of Ocean Warming
Updated
Updated · billmckibben.substack.com · Jun 19
Jim Hansen Team Sees 2026 Heat Record as El Niño Unleashes 23 ZJ of Ocean Warming
3 articles · Updated · billmckibben.substack.com · Jun 19
Summary
A new paper from Jim Hansen’s team says 2026 will likely surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record, with even higher temperatures possible in 2027.
The forecast hinges on a fast-arriving El Niño and unusually warm seas: global SSTs in May 2026 had caught up with 2024 levels, while Earth’s energy imbalance averaged 1.58 W/m2 from January 2025 to March 2026.
Ocean heat uptake jumped 23 zettajoules in 2025 alone—about 200 times annual global electricity generation and eight times the 1958-1985 average—suggesting the oceans are primed to release more stored heat.
Hansen’s paper also points to months in 2027 potentially breaching 2C above preindustrial levels, raising the possibility that climate sensitivity has been underestimated.
The warning lands as climate risks are already straining food and energy systems, sharpening pressure on governments to refocus on emissions cuts and clean power.
With a super El Niño accelerating global warming, can the clean energy transition win the race against time?
Why are US tax rules stalling billions in clean energy investments crucial for its own energy security?
As nations flee oil dependency, are they entering a new trap set by China's control of critical minerals?
Ocean Heat Content Surges Toward 2026-2027: Super El Niño, Accelerating Warming, and the Global Climate Crisis
Overview
The report highlights the looming threat of record-breaking global heat in 2026 and 2027, driven by the likely arrival of a powerful El Niño event. Past super El Niños have caused dramatic shifts in ocean temperatures, leading to destructive marine heat waves, widespread coral reef damage, and mass die-offs of marine life. These impacts have also extended to land, causing extreme heat and drought, with effects that can last for years or even decades. The consistent rise in ocean heat content further signals that the planet is absorbing more energy, setting the stage for even more severe and lasting climate disruptions.