Truckload Rejection Rates Top 16% as Carrier Capacity Falls 12%-14% Short of Demand
Updated
Updated · FreightWaves · Jun 21
Truckload Rejection Rates Top 16% as Carrier Capacity Falls 12%-14% Short of Demand
3 articles · Updated · FreightWaves · Jun 21
Summary
Weekly SONAR data show truckload rejection rates above 16% even as accepted volumes average about 10,450, indicating carriers are roughly 12%-14% short of meeting current demand.
June 2023 offers the contrast: accepted volumes were slightly higher at 10,600, but rejection rates sat just above 4%, suggesting today's tightening stems mainly from weaker capacity rather than a demand surge.
Demand has improved, helped by AI data-center buildouts, defense spending and leaner inventories, yet accepted volumes are flat year over year and total tender volumes are up about 9%—well below 2020's spike.
Capacity is also recovering slowly: large fleets cut capacity through the first quarter, FMCSA operating-authority changes stayed deeply negative through April, and the Montgomery-Caribe ruling has narrowed brokers' carrier options.
That mix points to a longer tight cycle, with FreightWaves warning that expectations for a quick easing could prove wrong in the second half of 2026 and into early 2027.