Opec Sees 124.1 Million Bpd Oil Demand by 2050 as Climate Policy Momentum Weakens
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Jun 19
Opec Sees 124.1 Million Bpd Oil Demand by 2050 as Climate Policy Momentum Weakens
3 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Jun 19
Summary
124.1 million barrels a day by 2050 is Opec’s new demand forecast, up from 105.1 million last year, with the group arguing the world is not nearing peak oil use.
Green-policy backsliding underpins that view: Opec says earlier emissions-cut plans were overly ambitious, pointing to U-turns in the US and softer pressure on climate targets elsewhere.
20 million electric cars were sold last year—up 20% and equal to a quarter of global car sales—while China’s plug-in share hit 62.9% of new passenger-car sales last month, challenging Opec’s road-fuel assumptions.
Road transport still accounts for nearly half of oil demand, so faster EV adoption in developing markets could outweigh sturdier consumption from aviation, shipping and petrochemicals.
The IEA, by contrast, expects global oil demand to plateau within a few years and edge down by 2030, a divergence that could eventually test Opec cohesion and production-discipline rules.
Amid a global oil crisis, is OPEC's bullish long-term forecast merely a bid to secure trillions in investment?
With the UAE exiting OPEC+ and Hormuz closed, will new producers permanently reshape global energy power?
As Argentina develops its 'carbon bomb' shale oil, can the world meet energy demand without sacrificing climate goals?
OPEC’s Vision for 2050: $17.7 Trillion Needed as Oil Demand Climbs to 124 Million Barrels per Day
Overview
OPEC's 2026 World Oil Outlook projects a strong and lasting rise in global oil demand, expecting it to reach 124 million barrels per day by 2050. This growth is driven by a 23% increase in global energy demand, fueled by population growth, urbanization, and economic development, especially in developing countries. OPEC believes oil will remain essential for decades, even as renewables expand. To meet this demand, OPEC stresses the need for massive investment—$17.7 trillion by 2050—across all parts of the oil industry. This vision highlights the ongoing importance of oil in the world’s energy future.