NBER Paper Ties iPhone Rollout to 33%-52% of US Fertility Decline
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Jun 18
NBER Paper Ties iPhone Rollout to 33%-52% of US Fertility Decline
3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 18
Summary
A new NBER working paper estimates iPhone diffusion explains 33%-52% of the drop in the US general fertility rate among women ages 15-44.
Using AT&T’s 2007-2011 exclusive iPhone rollout as a natural experiment, researchers compared areas that got the device earlier with those that got it later.
The sharpest declines were concentrated among teenagers and young adults ages 15-24, the paper said.
A separate May study by University of Cincinnati economists found similar results in US mobile-coverage data and in Britain, where teenage fertility also fell as smartphones neared saturation.
The finding enters a broader debate over why US births keep falling: about 710,000 fewer babies were born in 2025 than in 2007, with another decline expected in 2026.
A 'tech shock' is collapsing teen birth rates. What human behaviors will be rewired next?
Is your phone the new birth control, or a scapegoat for deeper social anxieties?
Fertility Rates Fall Worldwide Since 2007: Economic, Social, and Technological Drivers Explored
Overview
Fertility rates have been declining globally and in the U.S. since at least 2007, with drops in both the General Fertility Rate and Total Fertility Rate. This trend is influenced by many factors, not just technology. While research shows that birth rate declines often accelerate with the spread of smartphones and are seen across countries with different healthcare, economic, and cultural backgrounds, historical examples like Italy and Japan show that fertility rates were already falling before smartphones became common. This suggests that broader social, economic, and cultural changes are driving the ongoing decline in fertility.