California May Miss Full $2.5 Trillion SpaceX IPO Tax Bonanza as Pre-IPO Sales Blur Revenue
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Jun 18
California May Miss Full $2.5 Trillion SpaceX IPO Tax Bonanza as Pre-IPO Sales Blur Revenue
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Jun 18
Summary
$2.5 trillion SpaceX and potential $1 trillion IPOs from OpenAI and Anthropic could swell California tax receipts, but officials and advisers say the payoff may be smaller and less predictable than past tech listings.
SpaceX's compensation structure is a key reason: many employees already paid income tax on vesting RSUs before the IPO, unlike the dual-trigger awards that typically create a large taxable spike on listing day.
Pre-IPO liquidity also pulls revenue forward. OpenAI already ran a $6.6 billion secondary sale at a $500 billion valuation, and employees at SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic have had chances to sell shares before going public.
Tax planning can further trim the state's haul, including donations of private stock and loans against shares instead of sales, though California's tax agency is seen as aggressive in auditing equity income.
Facebook's 2012 IPO generated $1.3 billion for California at a $104 billion valuation, but the state has not issued estimates for the new offerings and remains wary after past market swings cut forecasts.