Updated

Updated · The Guardian · Jun 18

Labour Floods Makerfield With 3,000 Campaigners as Burnham Tests Strength Against Reform

Updated

Updated · The Guardian · Jun 18

Labour Floods Makerfield With 3,000 Campaigners as Burnham Tests Strength Against Reform

Q: Can a by-election victory in the North topple the Labour Prime Minister?

Not directly. But a strong Andy Burnham win in Makerfield could sharply increase the pressure on Keir Starmer and make a Labour leadership contest more likely. The by-election matters because Burnham is not currently an MP. If he wins, he returns to Westminster and becomes eligible to mount, or join, a formal leadership challenge. Under Labour rules, a challenger needs nominations from 20% of Labour MPs — about 81 MPs — to trigger a contest. Starmer would then be on the ballot automatically if he chose to fight. That is why Labour has thrown an extraordinary operation into Makerfield, with thousands of activists and senior ministers campaigning for Burnham. His supporters want more than a routine hold: they want a decisive personal mandate showing he can outperform Labour’s national brand and reconnect with working-class voters in the North. The wider context is what gives the result national significance. Starmer is already under pressure after poor local election results and visible unrest inside Labour. Polling of Labour members suggests Burnham is more popular than Starmer as a future leader, and many members think Labour would be more likely to win the next general election under him. Even so, a by-election win alone does not remove a prime minister. It would only create the conditions for a challenge. Burnham would still need enough MP backing, and then to win a leadership election. So Makerfield could be the trigger for Starmer’s downfall, but not the mechanism itself.

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Jun 18

Up to 3,000 Labour activists and hundreds of MPs are expected in Makerfield on Thursday, raising organiser fears that repeated doorstep visits could irritate voters in the byelection.
Each door has already been knocked at least six or seven times, prompting the campaign to shift volunteers toward polling stations, bus stops and school gates instead of more door-knocking.
Three extra campaign centres have been opened beyond headquarters to handle the influx, while local hotels are full and cabinet ministers are due in the Greater Manchester seat.
Andy Burnham is using the operation to show he can mobilise Labour and beat Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, though visiting MPs still describe the race as tight despite polls giving him a clear lead.
Rupert Lowe’s Restore party could take as much as 10% of the vote, making it a key test of whether Burnham can claim a clean win over Reform without relying on a split on the right.