Cocoa Hits 3-Week High as 67% Super El Niño Risk Threatens West Africa
Updated
Updated · Barchart · Jun 17
Cocoa Hits 3-Week High as 67% Super El Niño Risk Threatens West Africa
3 articles · Updated · Barchart · Jun 17
Summary
July ICE New York cocoa rose 0.05% and London cocoa 0.16% on Wednesday, with both contracts touching three-week highs before a stronger dollar trimmed gains.
El Niño confirmed last week is driving the move because it typically brings hotter, drier weather to West Africa, cutting soil moisture and threatening yields; NOAA puts the chance of a Super El Niño at 67%.
Funds are heavily positioned for downside, with net shorts in New York cocoa swelling by 6,175 to 27,286 in the week to June 9, raising the risk of a short-covering rally.
Weather worries are colliding with mixed fundamentals: early 2026/27 crop surveys show weak cherelle formation, but Ivory Coast port arrivals have reached 1.95 million metric tons, up 18.9% year over year, and ICE inventories remain near a 1.75-year high.
The broader market still faces crosscurrents from weak North American and European grindings, supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz closure, and forecasts for a smaller global cocoa surplus.