WMO Sees 80% Chance of El Nino by August as 2027 Risks Record Heat
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Jun 2
WMO Sees 80% Chance of El Nino by August as 2027 Risks Record Heat
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Jun 2
Summary
An El Nino now forming has an 80% chance of developing between June and August and a 90% chance of lasting at least until November, the WMO said.
A strong event is possible, with some models pointing to eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures at least 1.5C above average — a level the WMO uses to define strong El Nino conditions.
About 1.3C of human-driven warming since pre-industrial times is expected to amplify El Nino's effects, raising the risk of sharper heat spikes, droughts, heavy rain, bushfires, floods and crop failures.
The WMO said that combination could make 2027 the hottest year on record, surpassing 2024, while scientists warned regions from Brazil to southern Africa and the Pacific should prepare for more intense extremes.
With a super El Niño looming, is the world on the brink of a record-breaking food crisis?
Could the 2026 El Niño trigger a global recession, costing trillions more than past events?
Beyond weather chaos, how will the coming El Niño reshape global politics and migration patterns?
El Niño 2026: Forecast, Global Impacts, and Urgent Preparedness in a Warming World
Overview
As of mid-May 2026, the equatorial Pacific Ocean is rapidly shifting toward El Niño conditions, with sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 region reaching +0.9°C and weekly measurements showing a significant surge. This warming trend signals a move from near-neutral to clear El Niño status, and forecasts now give a 98% chance that El Niño will develop and persist. These changes are expected to strongly influence global weather, including fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and more storms in the Pacific, highlighting the urgent need for preparedness as the world faces a powerful climate event.