Iran War Hits 10 Economies Worth $4 Trillion, Triggering Region's Biggest Shock in 50 Years
Updated
Updated · Arab News · Jun 12
Iran War Hits 10 Economies Worth $4 Trillion, Triggering Region's Biggest Shock in 50 Years
3 articles · Updated · Arab News · Jun 12
Summary
$4 trillion in combined GDP is now directly exposed to the Iran war across 10 economies, making it the Middle East and North Africa's broadest economic shock since at least the 1970s, Asharq Business and Bloomberg analysis found.
10 countries have been directly affected for the first time since the 1940s, with oil and gas production and exports disrupted across most Gulf states as well as Iraq and Iran; Bloomberg estimates put OPEC's May output at its lowest since 1985.
6% is the IMF's baseline forecast for Iran's economic contraction this year, while the report says the wider region faces higher trade costs and weaker investor confidence rather than the oil-led growth seen in several past crises.
3.1% is Saudi Arabia's 2026 growth forecast, with the kingdom described as relatively resilient because Aramco rerouted most crude through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu and non-oil activity has strengthened after years of reforms.
Recovery now hinges on how fast the war ends, the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and energy exports normalize; the report warns lasting damage could spread beyond oil to tourism, shipping, foreign investment and reconstruction plans.