Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 4
Goldman Sees $10 Brent Downside as 2 Million-Barrel Demand Slump Offsets Iran War
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 4

Goldman Sees $10 Brent Downside as 2 Million-Barrel Demand Slump Offsets Iran War

3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jun 4

Summary

  • $10 a barrel of downside risk has emerged for Goldman Sachs' $90 fourth-quarter Brent forecast after April oil sales data pointed to weaker-than-expected consumption.
  • China and Western Europe data together imply about 2 million barrels a day of downside to the bank's already low April demand estimates, the analysts said in a May 31 note.
  • That demand slump is colliding with the opposite force in oil markets: potential supply losses from the Middle East tied to the Iran war.
  • Goldman said the result is a two-sided oil outlook, with softer use limiting price gains even as geopolitical disruption threatens to tighten supply.

Insights

When the Iran war ends, will a flood of oil supply crash a market weakened by permanent demand destruction?
Is the EV revolution now strong enough to neutralize a major Middle East war's impact on oil prices?