Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Jun 17

Analysts Back Tommy Fleetwood at 23-1 to Win U.S. Open as 4 Straight Long Shots Broke Through

Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Jun 17

Analysts Back Tommy Fleetwood at 23-1 to Win U.S. Open as 4 Straight Long Shots Broke Through

Q: Given Shinnecock's brutal history, will any golfer actually manage to finish this year's U.S. Open under par?

Yes, it is possible that someone finishes under par at Shinnecock this week, but history and the forecast suggest it will be rare and likely only by a shot or two. Shinnecock has been one of the U.S. Open’s toughest venues. In its last four U.S. Opens, the winning scores were 1-under in 1986, even par in 1995, 4-under in 2004 and 1-over in 2018. Only a handful of players have finished under par there in modern editions, and in 2018 nobody did. What makes this year different is the USGA’s stated intent to avoid the most extreme setup. Officials have said fairways will remain more traditional in width and greens will be slower than in 2018, a move designed to let the course’s natural difficulty — not borderline unplayable conditions — decide scoring. That opens the door to a winning score around 1- to 3-under if the weather cooperates. The problem is the weather may not cooperate. Forecasts call for persistent wind, with gusts potentially reaching 40 to 50 mph at times. At Shinnecock, that matters more than almost anywhere because players still must hit high, precise approach shots into fast, sloping greens. Even top players have warned that wind can make the course nearly unmanageable. So the most likely outcome is that very few players, if any, finish under par. But if the setup stays fair and one elite ball-striker handles the wind for four days, an under-par total remains realistic.

Q: With Shinnecock favoring precision, which dark horse has the perfect game to conquer the U.S. Open?

Justin Rose looks like the best dark horse for Shinnecock. The case for Rose is unusually strong because Shinnecock is expected to reward patience, trajectory control, long-iron precision and a polished short game more than raw power. Rose checks those boxes. He is a past U.S. Open champion, has a long record of handling difficult major setups, and already owns a T10 at Shinnecock in 2018, when the course last hosted and played brutally. Recent form strengthens the argument. The additional reporting points to a seven-shot win at the Farmers Insurance Open and a tie for third at the Masters, suggesting his game is sharp enough to contend. Just as important, Rose has openly said he is still elevating his focus for majors, which matters on a course where discipline and emotional control are essential. Tommy Fleetwood is the other obvious fit, especially after finishing runner-up at Shinnecock and posting that final-round 63 in 2018. Russell Henley also profiles well because of his driving accuracy and wind play. But Rose stands out because he combines course history, major pedigree, current form and the exact skill set this U.S. Open is expected to demand. If Shinnecock turns into the grinding, over-par test many expect, Rose has the most complete dark-horse profile to win it.

Q: Can a European player conquer Shinnecock's test and secure an unprecedented major treble for the continent?

Yes. Shinnecock Hills looks like one of the best U.S. Open venues for a European winner, and that would give Europe a third major of 2026 after Rory McIlroy’s Masters title and Aaron Rai’s PGA Championship victory. The course setup is the key reason. Shinnecock is expected to play more like a links or heathland test than a power-heavy American major: firm fairways, heavy wind, demanding long-iron approaches, and a premium on discipline, trajectory control and short game. Both McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler have said that profile should suit players raised on UK and European conditions. Europe also has multiple credible contenders beyond McIlroy. Tommy Fleetwood is an obvious fit after finishing runner-up at Shinnecock in 2018 and setting the course record with a final-round 63. Justin Rose has the experience, a U.S. Open title, and a top-10 at Shinnecock. Matt Fitzpatrick, already a U.S. Open champion, arrives in strong form, while Jon Rahm, Ludvig Åberg, Shane Lowry and Rai all have games that travel well in wind and on firm ground. Alex Fitzpatrick is a deeper long-shot whose accuracy and short game match the test. The caution is that “unprecedented” overstates it. A European win would complete a 2026 major treble, but Europe has previously managed three men’s majors in a season, most notably in 2014. Even so, the chance is real: this is a venue where precision can beat power, and that gives Europe a genuine opening.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Jun 17

Tommy Fleetwood tops analysts’ five-player U.S. Open betting card at 23-1, ahead of Russell Henley at 41-1, Justin Rose at 60-1, Harris English at 90-1 and Alex Fitzpatrick at 100-1.
Shinnecock Hills is seen as favoring strategy, ball-flight control, short game and 150-200 yard iron play more than raw distance, making shorter but balanced ball strikers more viable.
Fleetwood’s case includes a runner-up finish at Shinnecock in 2018, six top-10s this season and strong metrics from 150-200 yards and around the greens.
Recent U.S. Open history supports the long-shot angle: J.J. Spaun won at 150-1 last year, Wyndham Clark at 100-1 in 2023, and four straight champions started at +2000 or longer.
The analysts also argue the door is more open because Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy enter the week with form questions, reducing confidence in the top favorites.