SportsLine Model Backs Scheffler at +550, Fades Rahm for 2026 U.S. Open

Q: With favorites facing major hurdles, which underdog can tame Shinnecock’s brutal winds for a historic upset?

Brooks Koepka looks like the most credible underdog to handle Shinnecock Hills and threaten a genuine upset. The strongest case is course history. Koepka won the last U.S. Open at Shinnecock in 2018, when the course played exactly as it is expected to this week: firm, exposed and heavily influenced by wind. That matters at a venue where only a handful of players have ever finished under par in U.S. Open play and where gusts are again expected to shape scoring. His major pedigree also separates him from most longshots. Koepka is a five-time major champion with a long record of thriving in difficult U.S. Open setups, and he has repeatedly shown he can stay patient when par is a good score. At around +4500, he sits well behind Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm in the market, but his Shinnecock résumé is stronger than many players priced ahead of him. There are other plausible upset names. Cameron Young has strong support from SportsLine’s model and the power game to contend, while Harris English and Jake Knapp have been cited as fits for a grinding, windy championship. J.J. Spaun also brings the confidence of a defending champion and a fairways-and-greens formula that could travel well. But if the question is who can most realistically tame Shinnecock’s brutal winds for a historic upset, Koepka stands out because he has already done it on this exact stage.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Jun 18

10,000 simulations by SportsLine put Scottie Scheffler atop its 2026 U.S. Open outlook as the betting favorite at +550 entering Thursday's start at Shinnecock Hills.
Jon Rahm, listed at +1300, is the model's main fade, projecting him outside the top five despite his runner-up finish at last month's PGA Championship.
Cameron Young emerged as a top-five contender in the model at +2200 after two wins and six top-10 finishes this year, including a T-3 at the Masters.
One longer-shot pick around 75-1 also made the model's target list, though SportsLine did not identify the player in the public release.
The projection leans on a model SportsLine says has hit 17 majors entering the weekend, with the 2026 U.S. Open opening at 6:35 a.m. ET on Thursday.